One Nation, as well as other minor parties and independents, look set to deliver a Labor government at Saturday’s NSW election by taking votes and seats off the Liberal Party, according to seat-by-seat industry group polling leaked to Sky News Australia.
The polling shows Labor in front in the Liberal seats of Goulburn and Leppington, mostly as a result of the high number of votes for One Nation and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
It also shows the battle for the safe Liberal seat of Wakehurst, being vacated by retiring Health Minister Brad Hazzard, is a 50-50 contest with independent Michael Regan, with an 18 per cent primary vote swing against the Liberal Party.
Labor needs to win nine seats to win majority government but as few as four to be ahead of the Coalition and in the best position to win minority government.
In all three of these seats Matt Kean, the Treasurer and Energy Minister, is registering a net negative, despite his push to stop the Liberal Party losing their vote to Teal independents.
Revelations of the polling come after Sky News revealed yesterday a 16 per cent primary vote swing in a poll of Mr Kean’s own seat of Hornsby with One Nation receiving a 10 per cent swing to it from the 2019 election result.
In Leppington, the polling shows the Liberals are at 32, the Labor party at 40, One Nation at 16. The Greens have seven per cent.
The two party preferred-vote is 52-48 to Labor.
In that seat, Premier Dominic Perrottet is at net minus four, Labor leader Chris Minns net plus six and Mr Kean net minus 39.
Fifty-nine per cent of those polled think the government’s performance on energy policy is poor and only 15 per cent think it’s good.
In Goulburn, a seat held by minister Wendy Tuckerman, the Liberal party is polling 35 per cent (down four from the 2019 result), the Shooters Fishers and Farmers party is at 13 (up four), One Nation, who are not even running for the seat, are at five per cent.
Labor is at 33 per cent (up three) and the Greens at nine per cent.
On net favourabilities, the poll showed Mr Perrottet is at minus four per cent, Mr Minns plus nine and Mr Kean minus 29.
In Wakehurst, the Liberal candidate is at 41 per cent (down 18), the independent at 37, Labor at 11, the Greens at three.
Two-party preferred has the Liberals at 50 per cent and the independent at 50 per cent.
Sky News has also been leaked a poll taken last month of the seat of North Shore by another industry group – another contest between independents and the Liberal party in a blue-ribbon seat.
It shows the Liberal party on 34 per cent, down 13 since the last election, one independent on 28 per cent, Labor on 10 per cent and the Greens on 12.
On a two party preferred basis, the Liberals’ Felicity Wilson would lose the seat 54-46 based on this poll.
On energy policy, just 22 per cent of that electorate think the government’s performance is good and 42 per cent poor.
On the net favourabilities, Mr Perrottet is plus 15 per cent, Mr Minns plus six and the pro-climate Mr Kean is at net minus four, even in a seat where climate change is a major issue.
Source: skynews.com.au
